What makes an experienced, successful bettor, the one who wins on a regular base, so different from others, those who succeed from time to time?
Skill, knowledge, information, statistical tools, methodical approach, those are all keys to success. All those things mentioned in the previous sentence are essential, but the fact is that the most essential thing that makes a successful gambler is value betting.
Choosing value bets means realizing the difference between the team’s chances for winning and the chances that the team has compared to the odds that bookmakers have created.
For an experienced bettor, it is normal to look for value bets, but for those who are just to become serious bettors (not just sports fan), understanding the concept of value bets can be very difficult, very challenging.
Even if they understand it, it’s tough to apply it in a particular situation. It is never easy to bet on teams that no one can believe they win. But that is the key. Find a value bet and place a wager on it to become successful. Don’t give up, no matter how uncomfortable it is.
Let’s precisely explain what value bet is.
For example, you think that considering everything, you, as a severe bettor know that you have to consider (the playing field, current form, results in this and earlier seasons, mutual relations, absence of an individual player, motivation and morale, etc.), team A has more chances to win than team B.
You think that the probability for team A to win is 70%, and the bookmakers put 1.9 odd on that certain outcome (team A winning).
This is a value odd. How do we know it? Here is the formula for calculating value bet: Value = (Probability * Decimal Odds) – 1. In this certain situation, we have these numbers in the formula:
Value = (0,7*1,9)-1
The result is 0,33. When the final result is bigger than 0, you can say that you have found your best value. In this particular situation, the chance you give team A for winning the match is higher than those that bookmakers give it.
Find value bets with specialization.
If you want to become a serious bettor, it’s not that you just have to choose the sport, but league and tournament too. Start with the league and sport you know the best, especially when it comes to history and trends.
After you show yourself that you are able to find a value bet in a sport and league, you are familiar with it. You can try to apply everything you have learned in other sports and leagues. You can start exploring.
Besides specialization, it is vital to understand probability. The formula for implied probability is Implied Probability = 1 / decimal odds.
Considering an earlier example, Implied Probability is 1/1,9, and the result is 0,53. It means that the bookmaker gives the team a chance of 53% to win. Knowing this easy way of counting implied probability can help you easily and quickly find a value bet.
The biggest problem with finding value bet
The fact that you can never be sure about the chance you give to a specific outcome is a problem. When you throw a coin, you have an opportunity to 50% for specific outcomes.
The situation is not the same in sports betting. Try to be better than bookmakers in predicting the results, and that requires skills, knowledge, and devotion to learning.